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Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security

Online ISBN:
9780231535946
Print ISBN:
9780231166225
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
Book

Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security

Robert Pfaltzgraff,
Robert Pfaltzgraff
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis
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Published:
17 December 2013
Online ISBN:
9780231535946
Print ISBN:
9780231166225
Publisher:
Columbia University Press

Abstract

This volume offers alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. It is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons. Through three different scenarios, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post-Cold War world. It assesses the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop and the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatening or actually to using such weapons. It looks at the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States. It also assesses Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, which might spark a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, it considers Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics and role in the Islamic world. It also suggests specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.

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