Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security
Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security
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Abstract
This volume offers alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. It is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons. Through three different scenarios, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post-Cold War world. It assesses the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop and the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatening or actually to using such weapons. It looks at the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States. It also assesses Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, which might spark a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, it considers Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics and role in the Islamic world. It also suggests specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.
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Front Matter
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1
Introduction: Setting the Scene for Iran's Emergence as a Nuclear Power
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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2
The Deterrence Dynamics of an Iran with Nuclear Weapons
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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3
Considerations Influencing Iran’s Nuclear Emergence
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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4
Nuclear Weapons Operationalization: What Type of Nuclear Force?
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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5
Implications for U.S. Strategic and Operational Planning
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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6
U.S. Deterrence Planning in the Event of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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7
Dealing with a Nuclear Iran and Asymmetric Challenges
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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8
U.S. Deterrence Planning and Iran
Jacquelyn K. Davis andRobert L. Pfaltzgraff
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End Matter
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