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Joseph Stiglitz, Aaron Edlin, and J. Bradford DeLong

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780231143653

Published to Columbia Scholarship Online: November 2015

DOI: 10.7312/columbia/9780231143653.001.0001

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Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices

Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices

(p.269) Chapter 33 Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices
The Economists' Voice

Robert J. Shiller

Columbia University Press

This chapter addresses some common questions from homeowners: Is the current boom in home prices temporary? Is a crash possible? And if prices do fall, will they come back up fairly soon, or will they stay down for many years? It considers very long-term data in home prices in various countries. It shows that there is no long-term upward trend in real (inflation-adjusted) home prices. The recent run-up in prices is a bubble, and the only question is whether it will end with a soft landing or, on the contrary, with a sharp correction. With such a large degree of irrational overpricing, a sharp fall in prices is more likely.

Keywords:   U.S. housing market, real estate market, home prices, housing bubble

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