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Acts of God and ManRuminations on Risk and Insurance$
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Michael Powers

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780231153676

Published to Columbia Scholarship Online: November 2015

DOI: 10.7312/columbia/9780231153676.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM COLUMBIA SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.columbia.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Minnesota Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CUPSO for personal use.date: 30 November 2021

Games and the Mind

Games and the Mind

Modeling Human Behavior

(p.235) 15 Games and the Mind
Acts of God and Man

Michael R. Powers

Columbia University Press

The preceding three chapters have created the impression that serious deficiencies exist in some empirical scientific research, especially in fields relying primarily on observational studies. And that leads to the question: What can scientists do to improve the credibility of their research if randomized controlled studies are not feasible? The principal recommendation is that researchers embrace a much broader use of mathematical modeling and statistical simulation to replicate the complex processes under study. In fields such as insurance and financial economics, human behavior must be incorporated into any successful model. This chapter addresses the problem of modeling human behavior and suggests that, until we have figured out a way to create truly lifelike models of human beings, the most practicable alternative is to use the powerful techniques of mathematical game theory.

Keywords:   human behavior, mathematical modeling, statistical simulation, randomized controlled studies, mathematical game theory

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