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The Most Important Thing IlluminatedUncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor$
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Howard Marks

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780231162845

Published to Columbia Scholarship Online: November 2015

DOI: 10.7312/columbia/9780231162845.001.0001

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The Most Important Thing Is … Having a Sense for Where We Stand

The Most Important Thing Is … Having a Sense for Where We Stand

Chapter:
(p.151) 15 The Most Important Thing Is … Having a Sense for Where We Stand
Source:
The Most Important Thing Illuminated
Author(s):

Howard Marks

Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:10.7312/columbia/9780231162845.003.0015

This chapter examines an important requirement for successful investing: having a sense for where the investor stands. Market cycles pose a daunting challenge to investors because their ups and downs are inevitable, they will profoundly influence investor performance, and their extent and timing are unpredictable. In this case, the investor should just try to figure out where they stand in terms of each cycle and what that implies for their actions. The essential ingredient here is inference; the investor must strive to understand the implications of what is going on around them. This chapter presents a simple exercise that might help investors gauge the temperature of future securities markets. Comments and insights from four renowned investors and investment educators are also presented at the end.

Keywords:   market cycles, investors, inference, securities markets, investment

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