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The Miracle MythWhy Belief in the Resurrection and the Supernatural is Unjustified$
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Larry Shapiro

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780231178402

Published to Columbia Scholarship Online: September 2017

DOI: 10.7312/columbia/9780231178402.001.0001

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Justifying Belief in Improbable Events

Justifying Belief in Improbable Events

(p.57) 4 Justifying Belief in Improbable Events
The Miracle Myth

Larry Shapiro

Columbia University Press

Miracles are supposed to be extraordinarily rare. But a mathematical result shows that the rarer a phenomenon, the more reliable any testimony regarding its occurrence must be in order for us to be justified in believing it. This means that testimony on behalf of miracles must be especially good if it is to be accepted as true.

Keywords:   Justification, Testimony, Base Rate Fallacy, Bayes' Theorem, Probability

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